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The question of succession to Vladimir Putin may, of course, still seem distant. A video posted on social networks, which shows Russian leader shaking at official ceremonyamid persistent rumors around his allegedly failing healthyet rests it fatally. Who to exercise power in the event of temporary or permanent incapacity of the master of the Kremlin?
See you soon 70 years old, Vladimir Putin seems unstoppableat the center of the global game, leading a bloody war against its Ukrainian neighbour. To the point that talking about the post-Putin era seems almost taboo today. “I prefer not to answer such questions.”evacuated the person concerned last October, when an American media questioned him about his possible successor. It must be said that he would see himself staying in the Kremlin as long as possible.
In July 2022, he had the Russian Constitution amended in this direction, ending the rule of a maximum of two terms, which had already forced him in the past (2008-2012) to temporarily give way to Dimitri Medvedev. To prevent the political class from getting lost in a “a quest for potential successors”and guarantee “stability, security and prosperity” from the country, Russian president can now stay in power until 2036. At least, if his health allows it.
What does the Constitution provide?
Because it’s more of a another article of the Russian Constitution which could be applied by then, recalls the specialist in the post-Soviet world Anna Colin Lebedev. “According section 92 of the Constitution, in the event of the temporary impediment of the president (in time of war too), his interim is ensured by the Prime Minister”, she wrote on Twitter.
Since January 2020, it is Mikhail Michoustin who holds this position, once held by Vladimir Putin himself, Dimitri Medvedev or even Mikhail Kassianov, who has become a fervent opponent of the regime. It is therefore he who should ensure the interim if the Russian leader were to be temporarily prevented (illness, surgery, etc.), or permanently. In this second case, it would then be up to the Prime Minister in place to organize presidential elections within three months.
Should it be see in this function a springboard to the Kremlin? Nothing is less sure. Popular with the publicMikhail Michoustine does not seem less distant from the real circle of those close to Vladimir Putin.
What successor?
Among the most influential, on the military side, Sergei Shoigu, the Minister of Defense, has long seemed to have the favors of the master of the Kremlin, in private as in the strategic decision-making concerning the invasion of Ukraine. Not sure that the significant difficulties encountered by the Russian army since February 24 were favorable to him. A disgrace was even mentioned for a timeon the occasion of a disappearance of almost two weeks.
No, according to the Telegram General SVR channel, held by an alleged ex-Russian intelligence official, the name that would impose itself behind the scenes as a potential dolphin to Vladimir Putin is none other than that of Nikolai Patrushevthe influential secretary of the Russian Security Council. The latter also has many points in common with the current master of the Kremlin.
Patrushev, Putin’s shadow
This also a native of Saint Petersburg, 70 years old and also passed through the KGB, shares the same ideology with the Russian president. Nicknamed the “Kremlin falcon”, this faithful is “known for his fiery nationalism, his conspiratorial worldview and his vast experience in espionage”, recalled the American site. Politico in 2017.
And a sign that he could follow in the footsteps of Vladimir Putin: in 1999 when the latter was appointed Prime Minister by Boris Yeltsin, it was none other than Nikolai Patrushev who replaced him as director of the FSB. A career in the shadow of Putin, which could in the future lead him to the Kremlineven if behind the scenes, it is rather his son, Dimitri, 44, the current Minister of Agriculturewhich he would like to see achieved.
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