Source [ASAF] : The President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, alerted, from Brussels, on Thursday March 24, after a NATO summit and a meeting of the G7, on a significant risk of famine in the world , in connection with the war in Ukraine. His alarmist remarks were in line with those made a few days earlier by Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the UN, who declared that the war in Ukraine could lead to a world food crisis, “a hurricane of famine”.

This was, in fact, until then, one of the little-mentioned and yet crucial consequences of the war in Ukraine. It might even be the most dangerous. Ukraine and Russia are the granaries of Europe and together account for 15% of world wheat production and nearly 40% of exports. However, the sanctions imposed on Russia make its wheat production inaccessible and, in Ukraine, it will be impossible this year to harvest and sow. In any case, exports dependent on the port of Mariupol will not be possible.

However, today, 27 countries in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia depend more than 50% on Russia or Ukraine for their wheat imports. This represents 750 million inhabitants. If we extend the range to countries that import at least 30% of their wheat from these two exporting countries, then this concerns 50 countries and 1.3 billion inhabitants. To take just the example of Egypt, it happens that this country of 110 million inhabitants has only 4% of cultivable land. It is therefore the world’s leading importer of wheat with more than 14 million tonnes per year, 60% coming from Russia and 30% from Ukraine, and could, in the first place, suffer the harmful effects of the war in Ukraine.

The example of Egypt is interesting because it can illustrate how a global crisis could unfold. Indeed, in this country, half of the bread consumed is subsidized by the State and, in unsubsidized bakeries, its price has doubled since the start of the conflict. Subsidies which today represent 5 to 6 billion dollars could increase to 8 billion this year. They are the price to pay to avoid the social rebellion or food riots as it already existed, before the war in Ukraine, in the south of Iraq or in Tunisia.

The war in Ukraine thus reminds us that agriculture and food security are important geopolitical parameters and that the dependence of many countries on Russian or Ukrainian exports raises questions of a strategic nature. And all the more so since other factors can only aggravate the crisis already underway. Even if Mr. Macron pleaded, on March 24 in Brussels, for “an emergency plan to release stocks”, it turns out that these stocks are, at the global level, at their lowest, especially in West Africa: 4 to 5 months. Corn is also affected by the conflict in Ukraine, a major producer. China had a bad harvest in 2021 and it will weigh on the market with its considerable financial means. The disaster would be if there were climatic accidents in the other cereal-growing areas.

There is therefore a real risk of witnessing a great global revolt leading to the destabilization of many States, uncontrolled migratory flows and, here and there, armed conflicts to conquer the food resources necessary for the survival of certain peoples.

Are there solutions to avoid what could be a planetary earthquake? Europe has decided to modify its agricultural policy by increasing its production and exports. This would require intensifying the use of fertilizers. But, on the one hand, the cost of the latter has been multiplied by four in one year, and on the other hand, Russia represents 40% of world exports of nitrogenous fertilizers. Many European farmers can no longer produce more and therefore compensate for the lack of wheat of Ukrainian and Russian origin. Finally, even if Europe decided to relaunch its agricultural production, the expected results would only be visible at the end of the decade, not to mention that it must combine this capacity issue with the environmental challenge.

In an attempt to limit the risks, the European Commission could decide to suspend a rule which obliges European cereal growers to leave fallow at least 4% of their land in order to avoid soil depletion and overexploitation. But environmentalists are warning about the consequences of lifting these regulations. According to them, the exploitation of these lands left “at rest” could lead to a significant imbalance in biodiversity.

So, in desperation and despite the war, the French president summoned his Russian counterpart to let the Ukrainians sow wheat, holding him, in the event of refusal, for potential responsibility for an “inevitable famine” which could arrive in 12 at 18 months. Even if President Putin agrees, which is unlikely, who will sow? The men are at war and the women and children are refugees abroad or displaced within their own country.

At the G7 summit in Brussels, various mechanisms allowing a certain solidarity in favor of States exposed to the risk of famine were considered. On this vital subject, the international community has no room for error, because a failure, and therefore the announced famines, would constitute a drama of world dimension.

The shock wave of the war in Ukraine has only just begun.

The ASAF EDITORIAL
www.asafrance.fr